5-10% appreciation of the renminbi in 2006, optimistic about the property market - in Silicon's blog - the focus of blog

 Space 06 the number of RMB appreciation? July 21, 2005, the central bank announced that the RMB appreciation of 2% slightly from 8.27:1 to 8.11:1 transfer. Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a market-based reference to a basket of currencies, a managed floating exchange rate system. RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to the dollar, more flexible RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. to March 24, 2006 only, the RMB against the U.S. dollar is 8.03:1,UGG shoes, 3% appreciation of the renminbi. RMB exchange reform since the cumulative rate of appreciation since the break yesterday integer of 1% forecast in 2006 pass rate of RMB appreciation in 2006 Deutsche Bank forecast of 4% appreciation of the renminbi, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center predicted 06 Xie RMB appreciation of 3% to 5% Goldman Sachs predicted RMB appreciation in 2006 predicted 9% of Morgan Stanley in 2006 to promote appreciation of the renminbi revaluation of 10% or more factors of pattern Double Surplus 1.4221 trillion U.S. dollars the total annual imports and exports, compared with the previous an increase of 23.2%.'s trade surplus 101.9 billion U.S. dollars. last year the trade surplus is only $ 32,000,000,000.'s trade surplus increased on the one hand lead to trade frictions, on the other hand, will produce next year to further pressure on RMB appreciation. According to reports,bailey UGG boots, United States Senate will be made March 31 the threat of sanctions against China for its bill to a vote. the bill claim that, unless China agreed to allow the yuan to appreciate, or Chinese exports to the U.S. would impose tariffs of up to 27.5%. from the trade surplus further increase the pressure on imports and exports continue to follow the previous growth rate. year 1 to February despite the impact of Chinese New Year holiday, but exports remained at 25.5% growth; export growth rate reached 27.4%, while last year 17.6%. more international hot money and foreign capital into the Chinese market forecast JP Morgan hot money in Asia, more than 700 billion U.S. dollars, half of them in China's stock market and real estate is concerned about the two major foreign investment in areas near Hong Kong stock market strength. international capital to enter and exit Hong Kong stock market is very convenient, so H Shares of RMB appreciation is much more sensitive response than the A shares. Recently, the Hong Kong stock market and commercial real estate stocks rise, one of the important reasons is that the RMB appreciation and the appreciation of the expectations. and H shares rise A-share market and related sectors will have a demonstration effect, to enhance investor valuation of A-share market expected. the end of 2005 foreign exchange reserves reached 818.9 billion U.S. dollars, for two consecutive years since 2003, foreign exchange reserves increased 200 billion dollars a year or so. Market expect the yuan will rise against the U.S. dollar price of foreign non-principal of RMB forward rate (NDF) 1-year offer discount points to 3200 points, which means that one-year U.S. dollar against the yuan central parity is around 7.7185, which indicates that the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to be 5%. central bank policy change slightly prior to 2006, the main trend of steady rise. since 2006, with the central bank announced the formation of ways to improve RMB exchange rate, in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market transactions and the introduction of inquiry Since the market maker system, the renminbi is somewhat faster. 162 trading days since the reform on RMB appreciation of 814 basis points in total, of which only 48 trading days in 2006,UGG boots, the yuan central parity will be 416 basis points decline, with no one-third of the time half of the increase will be completed. Some domestic experts believe that the floating range of 0.3% much less than the international practice, so after a period of observation, the central bank may extend the floating range of 1% or 3% . capital controls is the order of opening of the capital: first, to relax into, then out to relax; first liberalize long-term capital flows, and release the short-term capital flows; first liberalize the control of financial institutions, after the release of non-financial institutions and the control of individual residents; first open a real trading background, no real background of post-release transactions. In recent weeks, officials have spent 8.8 billion for the domestic interbank foreign exchange transactions. In addition, to inhibit the growth of reserves and for other purposes, the official also began to gradually relax restrictions on foreign exchange outflows, such as tourists or students allowed to exit to increase the amount of foreign currency to carry, the proposed abolition of foreign investment enterprises to limit use of foreign exchange restrictions. U.S. dollar interest rate spreads between the two countries have recently increased to 5.25%,UGGs, but the one-year interest rate of RMB is still at 2.25%, the two countries there will be 3% interest rate difference. The Fed continued to help expand Sino-US interest rate spreads, encourage speculative international capital out of China, in the long run help to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation. due to the current dollar exchange rate in addition to reference, but also refer to the euro and yen, face enormous pressure to hold the yuan appreciation is concerned, only the buffer zone.